Monday, November 15, 2010

Energy and Wealth Shifts from OECD to ChinIndia

There are further statements and implications that can be drawn out from the IEA's just published World Energy Outlook 2010. Not only has global oil production peaked in 2006, but oil consumption in OECD countries, particularly Europe and Japan, is also in a steady and permanent decline. Oil consumption is rising quickly in developing nations, particularly China and India. China accounts for 57% of new oil demand, most of it for the transport sector. The IEA submits three future scenarios for oil consumption, but it doesn't matter which one you choose: all three predict a permanent decline in oil consumption for OECD countries.

Quote from IEA World Energy Outlook:

"If governments put in place the energy and climate policies to which they have committed themselves, then our analysis suggests that crude oil production has probably already peaked."

Quote from Fatih Birol, chief analyst for IEA, to Reuters News Agency:

"When we look at the OECD countries -- the U.S., Europe and Japan -- I think the level of demand that we have seen in 2006 and 2007, we will never see again."

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